Once you've entered your race time and hit "Show Results", you get a chart and a set of numbers. This page explains what they mean and how to use them to set a realistic goal — including what to do if the race you used as your reference wasn't typical for you.
The chart shows a frequency distribution — a histogram of how often different finishing times appear among runners who matched your query.
Each bar covers a range of finishing times (say, 44:00–44:30 for a 10K). The height of the bar tells you how many runners in the matched group finished within that range. Tall bars represent common outcomes; short bars represent rare ones.
The shape of the distribution tells you something useful in itself:
Below the chart, you'll see a set of key statistics: the median and several percentiles (30th, 40th, 60th, 70th).
A percentile tells you what fraction of the matched runners finished faster than that time. More precisely:
| Stat | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 30th percentile | 70% of matched runners were slower than this time; 30% were faster |
| 40th percentile | 60% were slower; 40% were faster |
| Median (50th) | Half of matched runners were faster, half were slower |
| 60th percentile | 40% were slower; 60% were faster |
| 70th percentile | 30% were slower; 70% were faster |
If you want a conservative, achievable goal, aim for the 60th or 70th percentile time — most runners like you managed that or better. If you want to push yourself, target the 30th or 40th percentile, which represents a performance toward the faster end of what comparable runners achieve.
Example: You ran a 25-minute 5K and want to set a 10K goal.
The tool shows: median 52:30, 40th percentile 51:00, 60th percentile 54:00.
A safe goal for your first 10K might be 53–54 minutes. If you're targeting a PB attempt with good conditions, 51 minutes is realistic but will require a strong run.
The tool matches you based on a single result. If that result wasn't representative of your current fitness — because it was a standout day, a bad day, or a course that ran fast or slow — you can adjust your approach rather than re-entering a different time.
Maybe you had a perfect day: ideal weather, a fast course, fresh legs after a taper, and everything clicked. Your result was at the top end of what you're capable of right now.
In that case, the distribution you see is already showing you what runners at your best tend to achieve. For a typical training race or a tough-course event, you might realistically aim one band higher — look at the 60th or 70th percentile rather than the median as your target.
Maybe you went out too fast, had a bad stomach, ran in a heatwave, or were coming back from injury. Your time underrepresents your current fitness.
Here, the distribution is anchored lower than it should be. You have two options:
The "time window" setting (under Advanced options) controls how closely other runners need to match your time to be included. If your reference race was slightly off but you don't want to enter a different time entirely, you can narrow the window to pull in only runners who are very close to your entered time, or widen it to get a broader sample that smooths out individual result variation.
Example: You ran a 10K in 48:30 but it was a hilly course and you think you're really closer to 47:00 fitness. Instead of entering 48:30, try entering 47:00 directly — or enter 48:30 and target the 30th–40th percentile of the resulting distribution.
Once you have a target time from the distribution, you can work backwards to a per-kilometre or per-mile pace:
A common mistake is going out too fast in the first few kilometres, banking time, and then fading. If the distribution is wide, that variance is partly explained by runners who did exactly this. A more reliable strategy is to run the first half at or very slightly slower than target pace and pick it up in the second half if you feel strong.
If you're targeting the 40th percentile or faster, that requires a disciplined, well-paced effort. If you're targeting the 60th or 70th percentile, you have more room to be conservative in the opening kilometres.