Race Time Predictor

See a distribution of times other runners who are similar in pace to you achieved at different distances.

  1. Enter a time at a race you ran
  2. Enter the distance you'd like to see results for
h
m
s
Advanced options
How many seconds either side of your time to include
Optional filters

How it works

Enter a time you've run at one distance, and this tool finds thousands of real athletes from a database of athlete results who ran a similar time at that distance. It then plots the distribution of what those same athletes achieved at your target distance — giving you a realistic picture of what runners like you tend to run.

Rather than using a single formula (like Riegel's equation), this approach shows you the full spread of outcomes: the fast end, the slow end, and everything in between. You can see whether your target time is realistic, conservative, or ambitious for someone at your current level.

Example uses

About the data

Results are drawn from a database of hundreds of thousands of real athlete race times, covering all ability levels, age groups, and genders.

The time window setting controls how closely matched the comparison athletes need to be. A narrower window gives a more precise comparison; a wider window includes more athletes and smooths out the distribution.